Thursday, 18 July - stage 18: Gap - Alpe-d'Huez, 172.5km
Stage 18 has been labelled as the most difficult,
controversial and discussed stage in this year’s Tour. It begins in Gap, where
Rui Costa won a stage on Tuesday, and finishes on the iconic Alpe d’Huez. It is
not a long stage at 172km, yet by the time the riders arrive at the finish,
they would have climbed the Alpe twice and 6 categorised climbs, 2 of them
classified as HC. Another key factor in the stage is the treacherous descent
after the 1999m Col de Sarenne. However, there is a strong possibility that the
stage will be shortened due to the dangerous descent. As I am writing this
blog, there is apparently a risk of cancellation if it rains, and weather
forecasts predict it will, but we probably won’t know until hours before the
stage.
The peloton will roll out of Gap and onto the Col de
Manse – the climb where Contador repeatedly attacked Sky on Tuesday – after
just a few kilometres. By the time they reach the top, 13km into the stage, the
day’s breakaway should be established. The descent is famous for when Joseba
Beloki, second at that point, crashed in 2003 and Armstrong had to divert
across a field to avoid calamity. The Tour then crosses the scenic Valbonnais
to tackle the easier side of the Col d’Ornon, before making its way onto the
first ascent of the Alpe d’Huez. If the Peleton do race down the Col de
Sarenne, which they might not, they will then have to cycle up the harder of
the two Alpe d’Huez ascents. With 21 hairpin bends, and 13.8km at an average of
8.1% gradient, this is certainly not your average stroll in the park.
The Many Controversies:
This stage has numerous controversies. Seven months
after the Tour director, Christian Prudhomme, unveiled the route at the Tour
presentation, Matthieu Stelvio, a local man determined to stop the descent of
the Sarenne from being used, collected over 10,000 signatures in an online
petition. His reason is different; chemicals which will leak into the soil from
the new tarmac and the marmots living on the slopes will suffer is his main
concerns. The manager of FDJ, Marc Madiot, is quoted as saying “it is pretty
dangerous,” and “it worries me.” Alberto Contador and Tony Martin both have
criticised the race organisers for including such a dangerous descent in the
Tour. Martin commented: “If someone falls, they skid 30 metres...” Consider the
fact that the speed limit is 20kph in a motor vehicle and they will be riding
at up to 60kph. Richie Porte said that Contador and Froome made a pact before
the Tour that they’d take it easy down the Sarenne, but he doubts that in the
heat of the moment the deal will be kept. In my opinion the race organisers
should cancel the first ascent of Alpe d’Huez, thereby avoiding the descent,
and reroute the stage so that there will still be a summit finish on the other
side.
Watch the descent of the Col de Sarenne:
The History:
The summit of Alpe d’Huez is the mountain in
which the Tour has finished most on. Today will be the 27th time a
Tour stage has finished on this historical peak. The most recent summit finish
was in 2011 where Pierre Rolland out-climbed Alberto Contador and Samuel
Sanchez. It was first included in the race in 1952 and has been a stage finish
regularly since 1976. That first Alpe d'Huez stage was won by Fausto Coppi. Coppi
attacked 6 kilometres from the summit to rid himself of the French rider, Jean Robic.
He turned the Alpe into an instant legend because this was the year that
motorcycle television crews first came to the Tour. It was also the Tour's
first mountain-top finish. Each of the 21 hairpin bends are named after the
winners of stages on the Alpe.
The Favourites:
Obviously, after winning his third stage on
Wednesday, Chris Froome once again enters this stage as the favourite.
He has won both summit finishes so far this Tour, and what’s to stop him
becoming the only Britain ever, besides Mark Cavendish, to win 4 or more stages
in one Tour? His climbing and form is superior to his other rivals and at the
moment he is well on course to becoming the 2nd consecutive Britain
to win the Tour. Nairo Quintana is the 2nd best climber in
this Tour at the moment. He is the only rider so far to be able to stay
remotely with Froome on the climbs, coming second by 29 seconds on the stage to
Mont Ventoux. In my mind he is the only rider competent enough to beat Froome
today and I will not be surprised if he is on the final podium in Paris. Contador
comes in as my 3rd choice for today’s stage. His climbing has been
very weak in comparison to his 2011(drug fuelled) Giro D’Italia victory and I
feel that he will once again be limiting his losses. All he can try to do is
attempt to hold off Quintana for the next 3 stages. Of those fighting for the 3rd
podium place Roman Kreuziger and Bauke Mollema are clearly less competent than Joaquim
Rodriguez. Rodriguez first found proper form on Mont Ventoux where he
finished 4th and carried it over to the time trial where he finished
3rd. He is only an outside possibility for today’s stage, but don’t
underrate him! The only other scenario I can see being played out is the breakaway
surviving this harsh stage: Unlikely, but possible.
The Weather:
The weather is the main cause for concern in today’s
stage. If it rains then the course may be changed:
General Classification:
The new top 10
overall is:
1. Froome (GBR) SKY
2. Contador (ESP) TST
at 4'34"
3. Kreuziger (CZE)
TST at 4'51"
4. Mollema (NED) BEL
at 6'23"
5. Quintana (COL) MOV
at 6'58"
6. Rodriguez (ESP)
KAT at 7'21"
TV Coverage:
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